10 stories to watch in last week of regular season
As the final week of the regular season approaches, here are 10 storylines to follow, most with an eye toward history and the unusual.
*Eleven games will decide region titles outright. Two of them, each to be played near the Florida-Georgia border, match top-10 teams. They are No. 1 Coffee at No. 5 Ware County in Region 1-5A and No. 8 Cairo at No. 3 Bainbridge in Region 1-4A.
*Jenkins County plays at Portal for the Region 3-A Division II championship. Jenkins County hasn’t won a region title since 1960. Portal has never won a region title. The computer Maxwell Ratings peg Jenkins County as a nine-point favorite.
*Union County plays at defending region champion Fellowship Christian for the Region 8-2A title. Union County last won a region title in 1973. Fellowship is a four-point favorite.
*Trion can win its first region title since 2003 but must break a nine-game losing streak against Darlington, which beat Trion 44-13 last season. Trion is a 24-point favorite.
*Other pure region championship games, meaning no potential third-team interference, are Arabia Mountain at Tucker, Heard County at Lamar County, Jefferson at Eastside, Morgan County at Harlem, North Murray at Rockmart and Social Circle at Prince Avenue.
*Effingham County can win its first region title since 1995 with a home victory over Brunswick. Effingham can do no worse than tie for first place. Losing by no more than 19 points will guarantee Effingham the title on tiebreakers. Brunswick is a seven-point favorite.
*Lowndes hasn’t missed the playoffs since 2014 but must win at home against Camden County to have a chance to extend that streak. Even then, it’s uncertain. There could be a three-way tie that involves Camden and Richmond Hill. The tiebreaker is points allowed in all region games. Camden will clinch a playoff berth with a victory but also faces possible expulsion on tiebreakers. Camden coach Jeff Herron hasn’t missed the playoffs since he coached Wheeler in 1996. Camden is a 14-point favorite.
*Eagle’s Landing Christian hasn’t missed the playoffs since 1995, but the Chargers must beat McNair or they will fall into a three-way tie with McNair and Redan for third place in Region 5-2A. One of the three would be left out on tiebreakers. McNair and Redan haven’t made the playoffs since 2007. One of those DeKalb County schools is assured of making it. ELCA is a 16-point favorite against McNair, while Redan is idle.
*Newton was 7-0 for the first time and ranked an all-time high No. 5 two weeks ago. After tight home losses to Parkview and South Gwinnett in Region 4-7A, Newton is the state’s only top-10 team not assured of a playoff berth. The Rams must beat Archer on the road or hope for a South Gwinnett loss against Brookwood to keep their season alive. Maxwell rates Newton a three-point favorite.
*Toombs County can win its first region title since 2000 but must win at archrival Vidalia. Toombs also needs to win by 13 points or more to keep itself safe in tiebreakers. Toombs is tied with Appling County and Pierce County, each with one loss. If points differential does not break the tie, it will come down to drawing from a hat. The Georgia High School Football Historians Association gives region-title recognition only to the ultimate No. 1 region seed unless a team loses out on a random draw or coin flip. Then multiple teams may be named region champions.
*Also notable: Allatoona is playing River Ridge for the fourth playoff berth in Region 6-6A. Allatoona has not missed the playoffs since it started playing a region schedule in 2010. River Ridge is favored by seven points at home. ... Jefferson County hasn’t missed the playoffs since 2001. Despite their 0-9 record, the Warriors can keep their streak going by winning at East Laurens, a 10-point favorite, in Region 2-A Division I. ... The Armuchee-Dade County game is probably for a playoff berth in Region 7-A Division I. Armuchee hasn’t made the playoffs since 2009. Dade is favored by 18. ... Former top-10 teams that need to win this week to have a chance to qualify are Athens Academy, Baldwin, Burke County, Clarke Central, Monroe Area and Oconee County. Maxwell predicts all but Clarke will survive. Burke hasn’t missed the playoffs in 16 years. ... Hebron Christian’s Jonathan Gess has made the playoffs in each of his 16 seasons as a head coach, all but one with ELCA. If Hebron fails to beat 16-point favorite Stephens County, Hebron likely will need 11-point favorite Monroe Area to beat Hart County out of Region 8-3A to keep that run alive.