Intriguing region races and Maxwell Ratings’ favorites

Four weeks remain in the regular season. Below are the Maxwell Ratings’ chances of each team winning their region. Teams with less than a 0.1% chance are not included. Here are some of the more intriguing region races and Maxwell favorites.

*Given less than a 1% chance in preseason, Bryan County (6-1, 1-0) of Region 3-A Division I is now a 93.4% pick to win its first title in history. That’s after beating defending champion Metter 21-20 last week, avenging a 30-0 loss from 2022. Bryan County fielded its first team in 1976. The Redskins also are positioned to earn their first home playoff game in history.

*Lumpkin County (7-0, 3-0) stands an 87.3% chance of winning its first region championship. Given a 7.7% chance in preseason, the Indians are now the only team without a region loss in Region 7-3A. Lumpkin started varsity football in 1961.

*Mount Vernon (5-2, 0-0) is favored at 82% to win its first region title in history, even if no games have been played in the four-team Region 6-A Division I. Mount Vernon is 6-2 against the classification’s 13th-toughest schedule, and Maxwell ranks the Mustangs No. 7 in the class. The other three region teams have losing records.

*North Cobb Christian (5-2, 3-0) has a 96.7% chance to win its first region title in history. The Eagles are the only team without a loss in Region 6-2A and play defending champion South Atlanta (3-4, 2-1) on Friday.

*Jenkins County (75.8%) can win its first region title since 1960. The Eagles (7-0, 1-0) were given a 9.5% chance in preseason. They beat defending Region 3-A Division II champion McIntosh County Academy 47-0 last week.

*Telfair County (91.1%) appears to be closing in on its first region title since 1993. The Trojans (6-0, 2-0) beat defending Region 4-A Division II champion Wilcox County 29-15 last week. They were given an 18.1% chance in preseason.

*Effingham County, without a title since 1995, is the favorite in Region 2-6A. Given a 9.5% chance to win in preseason, the Rebels now have a 42.1% chance in a region that includes preseason favorite and defending champion Brunswick (35.2%) and Glynn Academy (14.4%). Effingham has beaten Glynn, and Glynn has beaten Brunswick. Effingham plays Brunswick on Nov. 3.

*Toombs County (85.2%) is ranked No. 1 in Class 2A in the Maxwell Ratings and is favored to win its first region title since 2000. That could change quickly, though, if the Bulldogs don’t win Friday at home against No. 4 Pierce County as No. 3 Pierce County and Vidalia remain in contention in deep Region 3.

*With a 98% chance to close the deal, Douglas County is approaching its first region title since 2002. The Tigers are the only team with no region losses in 5-6A. Douglas County’s chances were only 6.3% in preseason, but a 30-27 victory over defending Class 6A champion Hughes on Sept. 22 did wonders for those odds.

*Spalding (7-0, 3-0) – given only a 4.1% chance in preseason – is favored to win its first region title since 2003. The Region 2-4A championship is likely to come down to an Oct. 27 game against Perry (6-1, 3-0), the defending champion. Both are in the top five of the Class 4A composite rankings.

*Trion (6-0, 2-0) has an 82.1% chance to win its first region title since 2003, though Darlington (5-2, 3-0) and Pepperell (3-3, 2-0) also have no region losses.

*Northeast (99.2%) appears to be a cinch to win Region 2-2A. That would be the Raiders’ first title since 2009.

*Northgate and Harris County rank 2-3 this week on GHSF Daily’s Improvement Tracker for Class 5A, and one is almost certainly going to win Region 3. Northgate, given a 57.3% chance of winning, can win its first region title since 2011. Harris County (41.8%) has won only two region titles in its 68 seasons, none since 2014. A year ago in this region, Northside of Columbus won its first title in history in its 19th varsity season. Harris County beat Northside 27-7 last week.

*Central of Carrollton is 96.7% pick to win its first region title since 2014 and second in more than 35 years. Central, given only a 3.6% chance in preseason, has avenged its two 2022 region losses (Cedartown, Sonoraville) the past two weeks, although Northwest Whitfield (6-1, 2-0) remains a threat.

*No. 1 Coffee of Region 1-5A is the favorite at 76%, and a region title would be the Trojans’ second in 20 years, first since 2015. But their final regular-season game is at No. 6 Ware County, the defending region and state champion.

*Newton’s chances of 82.2% seem a bit optimistic given the presence of No. 7 Parkview in Region 4-7A, but the evidence of scores goes Newton’s way. A region title would be Newton’s third in history, first since 2015. Newton was picked to finish fourth in preseason with a 3.5% chance of winning the region. Parkview is at Newton on Oct. 20.

*Region 4-5A is nearly a tossup between Arabia Mountain (58.5%) and Tucker (41.5%) percent. Those DeKalb County schools play Aug. 3. Both last won region titles in 2017. Decatur won this region last season, breaking an 18-year region drought, but Tucker (4-3, 2-0) and Arabia Mountain (6-1, 2-0) have beaten the Bulldogs in consecutive weeks and stand alone at the top of the region.

*Following its first back-to-back losing seasons since 2008-09, Greater Atlanta Christian is 6-0, 2-0, and given a 60.3% chance to win Region 6-5A after beating defending champion Cambridge 30-3 last week. But the Spartans likely must win at Kell (39%) on Oct. 20. They are the only 2-0 teams in the region. GAC was given a 7.8% chance of winning the region in preseason.

*Not so much history in this one, but maximum intrigue: Jones County (5-2, 3-0) and Warner Robins (4-3, 3-0) are the only teams with no region losses in Region 2-5A. Maxwell gives Jones County a 58.9% of winning despite losing its quarterback, Miami-committed senior Judd Anderson, to Warner Robins in an unusual midseason transfer two weeks into the season. But Jones County has won four straight games, and its new quarterback, Devin Edmonds, threw six TD passes in a 48-17 rout of 10th-ranked Ola last week. The two contenders meet Oct. 27 in Warner Robins.

Championship odds, by region:

Region 1-7A

96.6% - Colquitt County

2.2% - Valdosta

1.1% - Camden County

0.1% - Richmond Hill

Region 2-7A

55.7% - Carrollton

44.2% - Westlake

0.1% - East Coweta

Region 3-7A

57.2% - McEachern

23.8% - North Paulding

15.2% - Marietta

3.7% - Harrison

0.1% - Hillgrove

Region 4-7A

82.2% - Newton

13.6% - Parkview

3.3% - Grayson

0.8% - Archer

Region 5-7A

98.7% - Walton

0.8% - North Cobb

0.4% - Wheeler

Region 6-7A

56.4% - Milton

36.0% - Lambert

7.5% - West Forsyth

0.1% - Denmark

Region 7-7A

51.4% - Norcross

32.9% - North Gwinnett

15.6% - Peachtree Ridge

Region 8-7A

60.5% - Mill Creek

39.4% - Buford

0.1% - Mountain View

Region 1-6A

71.8% - Thomas County Central

25.5% - Lee County

2.6% - Houston County

Region 2-6A

42.1% - Effingham County

35.2% - Brunswick

14.4% - Glynn Academy

8.2% - Evans

Region 3-6A

96.8% - Woodward Academy

3.1% - Mundy's Mill

0.1% - Jonesboro

Region 4-6A

73.2% - Marist

26.8% - North Atlanta

Region 5-6A

98.0% - Douglas County

2.0% - Hughes

Region 6-6A

86.8% - Rome

12.8% - Creekview

0.4% - Sequoyah

Region 7-6A

95.3% - Roswell

2.9% - Blessed Trinity

1.9% - Alpharetta

Region 8-6A

99.6% - Gainesville

0.3% - North Forsyth

0.1% - Lanier

Region 1-5A

76.0% - Coffee

24.0% - Ware County

Region 2-5A

58.9% - Jones County

40.3% - Warner Robins

0.7% - Dutchtown

Region 3-5A

57.3% - Northgate

41.8% - Harris County

0.4% - McIntosh

0.4% - Northside (Columbus)

0.1% - Drew

Region 4-5A

58.5% - Arabia Mountain

41.5% - Tucker

Region 5-5A

89.8% - Creekside

5.8% - Villa Rica

4.4% - Mays

Region 6-5A

60.3% - Greater Atlanta Christian

39.0% - Kell

0.7% - Cambridge

Region 7-5A

74.0% - Cartersville

16.8% - Calhoun

8.2% - Hiram

0.9% - Dalton

0.1% - Cass

Region 8-5A

73.1% - Jefferson

19.7% - Eastside

7.2% - Flowery Branch

Region 1-4A

72.7% - Bainbridge

27.3% - Cairo

Region 2-4A

61.2% - Spalding

38.8% - Perry

0.1% - Baldwin

Region 3-4A

97.9% - Benedictine

2.0% - Wayne County

Region 4-4A

55.0% - Trinity Christian

24.2% - Troup

19.1% - Starr's Mill

1.7% - LaGrange

Region 5-4A

98.0% - Stockbridge

2.0% - Pace Academy

Region 6-4A

45.3% - Hapeville Charter

23.2% - Holy Innocents’

19.8% - Westminster

10.3% - Stephenson

1.3% - Miller Grove

Region 7-4A

96.7% - Central (Carrollton)

2.3% - Northwest Whitfield

0.9% - Cedartown

Region 8-4A

100.0% - North Oconee

Region 1-3A

62.4% - Carver (Columbus)

12.8% - Monroe

12.4% - Crisp County

11.8% - Thomasville

0.5% - Dougherty

Region 2-3A

93.2% - Mary Persons

4.4% - Peach County

2.4% - Upson-Lee

Region 3-3A

99.4% - Calvary Day

0.6% - Savannah Christian

Region 4-3A

67.1% - Morgan County

32.5% - Harlem

0.4% - Hephzibah

Region 5-3A

86.2% - Cedar Grove

10.1% - Sandy Creek

2.9% - Carver (Atlanta)

0.8% - Douglass

Region 6-3A

67.2% - Adairsville

30.5% - Bremen

1.3% - Coahulla Creek

1.1% - Gordon Lee

Region 7-3A

87.3% - Lumpkin County

11.3% - White County

0.8% - Wesleyan

0.6% - Dawson County

Region 8-3A

97.3% - Stephens County

1.6% - Hart County

0.9% - Oconee County

0.1% - Monroe Area

Region 1-2A

50.9% - Fitzgerald

48.0% - Cook

0.6% - Sumter County

0.4% - Jeff Davis

0.1% - Worth County

Region 2-2A

99.2% - Northeast

0.7% - Spencer

Region 3-2A

85.2% - Toombs County

14.6% - Pierce County

0.2% - Appling County

Region 4-2A

96.0% - Thomson

3.0% - Putnam County

0.9% - Laney

Region 5-2A

92.6% - Callaway

3.7% - Eagle's Landing Christian

3.6% - Columbia

Region 6-2A

96.7% - North Cobb Christian

2.8% - Therrell

0.5% - South Atlanta

Region 7-2A

93.9% - Rockmart

4.1% - North Murray

1.5% - Fannin County

0.5% - Model

Region 8-2A

59.2% - Athens Academy

26.8% - Fellowship Christian

12.4% - Union County

1.0% - East Jackson

0.6% - Providence Christian

Region 1-A Division I

35.6% - Brooks County

28.3% - Irwin County

27.6% - Bacon County

8.5% - Pelham

Region 2-A Division I

81.5% - Swainsboro

16.9% - Bleckley County

1.5% - Dublin

Region 3-A Division I

93.4% - Bryan County

4.4% - Metter

2.2% - Screven County

Region 4-A Division I

74.8% - Lamar County

24.2% - Temple

1.1% - Heard County

Region 5-A Division I

99.3% - Prince Avenue Christian

0.5% - Jasper County

0.1% - Oglethorpe County

0.1% - Social Circle

Region 6-A Division I

82.0% - Mount Vernon

12.6% - Whitefield Academy

4.9% - St. Francis

0.5% - Mount Pisgah Christian

Region 7-A Division I

82.1% - Trion

14.4% - Darlington

3.5% - Pepperell

0.1% - Armuchee

Region 8-A Division I

61.2% - Rabun County

26.3% - Elbert County

12.5% - Commerce

Region 1-A Division II

100% - Early County has clinched

Region 2-A Division II

95.6% - Clinch County

3.5% - Charlton County

0.5% - Turner County

0.4% - Lanier County

Region 3-A Division II

75.8% - Jenkins County

19.2% - Emanuel County Institute

4.7% - Portal

0.3% - McIntosh County Academy

Region 4-A Division II

91.1% - Telfair County

8.1% - Dooly County

0.8% - Wilcox County

0.1% - Hawkinsville

Region 5-A Division II

83.7% - Johnson County

10.7% - Hancock Central

4.8% - Wilkinson County

0.9% - Glascock County

Region 6-A Division II

74.3% - Schley County

25.7% - Manchester

Region 7-A Division II

96.0% - Bowdon

3.8% - Christian Heritage

0.2% - Mount Zion (Carroll)

Region 8-A Division II

77.2% - Greene County

19.3% - Aquinas

3.0% - Lincoln County

0.5% - Washington-Wilkes