Maxwell Ratings’ projected brackets for 3A through A
Below are the computer Maxwell Ratings’ projected first-round matchups in classes 3A through A. With three weeks left in the regular season, not all predictions will come true, of course, but the bracket itself – showing which regions match up against each other in the first round and beyond – is set in stone.
The commentary preceding each projected bracket points out how the pairings might benefit some regions and teams and not others. It foretells of intriguing high-powered quarterfinal matchups such as Cedar Grove vs. Calvary Day and Rabun County vs. Swainsboro. GHSF Daily looked at the 7A-4A projections last week.
Class 3A
No. 1 Cedar Grove and No. 2 Calvary Day (using GHSF Daily rankings) will be seeded to meet in the quarterfinals if they win their regions. Meanwhile, only one ranked team, No. 10 Hebron Christian, is projected for the bottom quarter of the draw, and Hebron would be a No. 3 seed. Adairsville, the Region 6 favorite, is the Maxwell Ratings’ choice to get through that quarter and make the school’s first semifinal since 1973. Dawson County, on target for its second region title in history, first since 2015, could draw a top-10 team, Oconee County, in round one. Maxwell sees Dougherty and Sandy Creek joining Adairsville in the semis with defending champion Cedar Grove as the team to beat.
R5 #3 Carver (Atlanta) at R6 #2 Ringgold
R8 #4 Oconee County at R7 #1 Dawson County
R3 #3 Johnson (Savannah) at R4 #2 Harlem
R2 #4 Mary Persons at R1 #1 Dougherty
R6 #3 Coahulla Creek at R5 #2 Sandy Creek
R7 #4 Pickens at R8 #1 Stephens County
R4 #3 Hephzibah at R3 #2 Savannah Christian
R1 #4 Crisp County at R2 #1 Peach County
R1 #3 Carver (Columbus) at R2 #2 Upson-Lee
R4 #4 Richmond Academy at R3 #1 Calvary Day
R7 #3 Lumpkin County at R8 #2 Monroe Area
R6 #4 Bremen at R5 #1 Cedar Grove
R2 #3 Jackson at R1 #2 Thomasville
R3 #4 Liberty County at R4 #1 Morgan County
R8 #3 Hebron Christian at R7 #2 Wesleyan
R5 #4 Douglass at R6 #1 Adairsville
Class 2A
Overall, the 2A draw is balanced with two or three top-10 teams in each quarter. Defending champion and No. 1-ranked Fitzgerald has a decent path with no team in its quarter more highly ranked than No. 9 Putnam County, though Rockmart has been in and out of the top 10 much of the season and would be a tough out. Maxwell sees Fitzgerald winning it again, beating Cook in the final, with Region 3 rivals Pierce County and Appling County reaching the semifinals, as they did last year in 3A.
R5 #3 Columbia at R6 #2 North Cobb Christian
R8 #4 East Jackson at R7 #1 Rockmart
R3 #3 Tattnall County at R4 #2 Putnam County
R2 #4 Southwest at R1 #1 Fitzgerald
R6 #3 Mount Paran Christian at R5 #2 Eagle's Landing Christian
R7 #4 North Murray at R8 #1 Fellowship Christian
R4 #3 Laney at R3 #2 Pierce County
R1 #4 Berrien at R2 #1 Northeast
R1 #3 Worth County at R2 #2 ACE Charter
R4 #4 Washington County at R3 #1 Appling County
R7 #3 Fannin County at R8 #2 Athens Academy
R6 #4 Washington at R5 #1 Callaway
R2 #3 Spencer at R1 #2 Cook
R3 #4 Vidalia at R4 #1 Thomson
R8 #3 Union County at R7 #2 Model
R5 #4 Landmark Christian at R6 #1 South Atlanta
Class A Division I
Brooks County, the 2021 champion in Class A Public, is the only ranked team in the bottom quarter of this simulation. And that’s based on Maxwell’s projection that Brooks will finish second to Irwin County in the Region 1 race. Either way, the loser of that rivalry game shouldn’t fret except for potential road trips to Lamar County and St. Francis, both unranked. The Region 1 winner’s best competition figures to be Darlington and Whitefield Academy, both lower-half top-10 teams. The toughest draw belongs to No. 2 Swainsboro and No. 3 Rabun County. They could meet in the quarterfinals. Maxwell gives the best overall odds to No. 1-ranked Prince Avenue Christian with Irwin County as the runner-up and Rabun and Brooks making the semifinals.
R5 #3 Oglethorpe County at R6 #2 Whitefield Academy
R8 #4 Athens Christian at R7 #1 Darlington
R3 #3 Bryan County at R4 #2 Temple
R2 #4 Jefferson County at R1 #1 Irwin County
R6 #3 Mount Pisgah Christian at R5 #2 Social Circle
R7 #4 Dade County at R8 #1 Rabun County
R4 #3 Heard County at R3 #2 Screven County
R1 #4 Bacon County at R2 #1 Swainsboro
R1 #3 Pelham at R2 #2 Dublin
R4 #4 Crawford County at R3 #1 Metter
R7 #3 Pepperell at R8 #2 Elbert County
R6 #4 Mount Vernon at R5 #1 Prince Avenue Christian
R2 #3 Bleckley County at R1 #2 Brooks County
R3 #4 Claxton at R4 #1 Lamar County
R8 #3 Commerce at R7 #2 Trion
R5 #4 Jasper County at R6 #1 St. Francis
Class A Division II
This class is hard to rate because it’s essentially a 2022 novelty that gives schools with about 450 students and fewer a better chance. None of them went particularly deep in the playoffs last season, so it’s anybody’s guess who the favorites should be. Maxwell believes Bowdon will beat Johnson County in the final with Clinch County and Schley County as semifinalists. If the draw shapes up like this, Schley as the Region 1 champion might be in the best shape. The Wildcats were GHSF Daily’s preseason No. 1 team, and though now ranked No. 6 with a 5-2 record, they haven’t lost this season when at full strength.
R5 #3 GMC Prep at R6 #2 Manchester
R8 #4 Greene County at R7 #1 Bowdon
R3 #3 Jenkins County at R4 #2 Wilcox County
R2 #4 Turner County at R1 #1 Early County
R6 #3 Macon County at R5 #2 Wilkinson County
R7 #4 Bye at R8 #1 Lincoln County
R4 #3 Telfair County at R3 #2 McIntosh County Academy
R1 #4 Seminole County at R2 #1 Clinch County
R1 #3 Terrell County at R2 #2 Charlton County
R4 #4 Wheeler County at R3 #1 Emanuel County Institute
R7 #3 Mount Zion (Carroll) at R8 #2 Aquinas
R6 #4 Chattahoochee County at R5 #1 Johnson County
R2 #3 Lanier County at R1 #2 Mitchell County
R3 #4 Montgomery County at R4 #1 Dooly County
R8 #3 Washington-Wilkes at R7 #2 Christian Heritage
R5 #4 Hancock Central at R6 #1 Schley County