Maxwell Ratings’ projected playoff brackets after Week 4
Region play has begun in only 12 of the 56 regions, and the regular season is just one-third complete, but bracket mania has been simmering for weeks in the computer Maxwell Ratings.
Below are the projected first-round matchups and seeds for all eight championship draws, along with some GHSF Daily observations.
In four classes – 6A, 5A, 4A and A Division II – the draws are in traditional GHSA format. That is, the top four teams from each region make the playoffs, and region winners (No. 1 seeds) will play fourth-place teams (No. 4 seeds) in the first round. For the other classes – 3A, 2A, A Division I and the 3A-A private division – the GHSA’s new Post Season Rankings will seed all playoff teams 1-32. Top-four region finishers are guaranteed playoff berths, and there will be some at-large qualifiers to replace the 3A-A private teams that exit for their own state-championship bracket. Region winners and runners-up get seeding priority.
Draws seeded 1-32 on a points formula make projecting the actual first-round matchups more difficult because there are more possibilities, but Maxwell’s seeding projections – with his model simulating the rest of the regular season – is an excellent gauge of how each 3A-A team stands in the points race.
Class 6A
Top-ranked Carrollton and third-ranked Douglas County are in the same Region 2. That region’s winner looks to be getting a much better draw than the No. 2 seed, so their Nov. 1 game figures to be extra important.
(R2 #3) Westlake at (R8 #2) Collins Hill
(R5 #4) Cherokee at (R1 #1) Colquitt County
(R7 #3) Parkview at (R6 #2) Lambert
(R3 #4) Campbell at (R4 #1) Grayson
(R8 #3) Mill Creek at (R2 #2) Carrollton
(R1 #4) Lowndes at (R5 #1) North Cobb
(R6 #3) North Forsyth at (R7 #2) Norcross
(R4 #4) Archer at (R3 #1) McEachern
(R4 #3) Newton at (R3 #2) Harrison
(R7 #4) Peachtree Ridge at (R6 #1) West Forsyth
(R1 #3) Valdosta at (R5 #2) Walton
(R8 #4) Dacula at (R2 #1) Douglas County
(R3 #3) Hillgrove at (R4 #2) South Gwinnett
(R6 #4) North Atlanta at (R7 #1) North Gwinnett
(R5 #3) North Paulding at (R1 #2) Camden County
(R2 #4) East Coweta at (R8 #1) Buford
Class 5A
Region 2 has four top-10 teams (Lee County, Thomas County Central, Coffee, Houston County). Region 7 has three (Milton, Gainesville, Roswell). Only four can host first-round playoff games. Maxwell projects the other three to win twice on the road and put all seven in the elite eight alongside a Cinderella, Sequoyah.
(R2 #3) Coffee at (R8 #2) Jackson County
(R5 #4) South Paulding at (R1 #1) Brunswick
(R7 #3) Roswell at (R6 #2) Creekview
(R3 #4) Newnan at (R4 #1) Woodward Academy
(R8 #3) Winder-Barrow at (R2 #2) Thomas County Central
(R1 #4) Lakeside-Evans at (R5 #1) Rome
(R6 #3) River Ridge at (R7 #2) Gainesville
(R4 #4) Arabia Mountain at (R3 #1) Hughes
(R4 #3) Dunwoody at (R3 #2) Lovejoy
(R7 #4) Lanier at (R6 #1) Sequoyah
(R1 #3) Effingham County at (R5 #2) East Paulding
(R8 #4) Habersham Central at (R2 #1) Lee County
(R3 #3) Dutchtown at (R4 #2) Decatur
(R6 #4) Pope at (R7 #1) Milton
(R5 #3) Villa Rica at (R1 #2) Glynn Academy
(R2 #4) Houston County at (R8 #1) Clarke Central
Class 4A
Perry at Marist in the first round? Woof! All four of the projected playoff teams from Region 1 are in the top 10 of the composite rankings, so watch where they land in the draw.
(R2 #3) Stockbridge at (R8 #2) Eastside
(R5 #4) Southwest DeKalb at (R1 #1) Ware County
(R7 #3) Cass at (R6 #2) Cambridge
(R3 #4) Jonesboro at (R4 #1) Creekside
(R8 #3) East Forsyth at (R2 #2) Jones County
(R1 #4) Perry at (R5 #1) Marist
(R6 #3) Kell at (R7 #2) Cedartown
(R4 #4) Pace Academy at (R3 #1) Central (Carrollton)
(R4 #3) Jackson (Atlanta) at (R3 #2) Harris County
(R7 #4) Allatoona at (R6 #1) Blessed Trinity
(R1 #3) Warner Robins at (R5 #2) St. Pius
(R8 #4) Flowery Branch at (R2 #1) Ola
(R3 #3) Starr's Mill at (R4 #2) Mays
(R6 #4) Westminster at (R7 #1) Cartersville
(R5 #3) Tucker at (R1 #2) Benedictine
(R2 #4) Hampton at (R8 #1) North Oconee
Class 3A
There are four private schools playing here in the regular season, and they’ll leave a void for some at-large playoff teams that finish fifth or below. Maxwell projects that sixth-place finishers in regions 2 and 4 (in this projection, that’s Upson-Lee and Westside of Macon) will make the playoffs as at-large teams along with Region 2’s fifth-place finisher (projected to be Whitewater).
#32 Bainbridge at #1 Jefferson
#17 Cherokee Bluff at #16 Long County
#24 Oconee County at #9 Monroe Area
#25 Troup at #8 Harlem
#28 Gilmer at #5 Lumpkin County
#21 Southeast Bulloch at #12 Jenkins
#20 Westover at #13 Stephenson
#29 Upson-Lee at #4 Cedar Grove
#30 North Hall at #3 Peach County
#19 West Laurens at #14 Cairo
#22 Adairsville at #11 Northwest Whitfield
#27 White County at #6 Baldwin
#26 Whitewater at #7 Calhoun
#23 Westside (Augusta) at #10 LaGrange
#18 Douglass at #15 Mary Persons
#31 Luella at #2 Sandy Creek
Class 2A
Stephens County is ranked No. 3 among its public Class 2A peers but might be stressed to land even the No. 7 seed here. That’s because the Indians are in the same region with private powers Prince Avenue Christian and Hebron Christian. Finish third among those and the Indians are looking at about a No. 14 seed. Maxwell projects five at-large qualifiers – Pike County, Union County, East Jackson, Hardaway and Sonoraville. Note Columbia’s No. 6 seed. The Eagles are 0-3 and have a brutal non-region schedule that will make a winning record a challenge, but they’re the team to beat in their region. Region winners will be seeded higher than non-region winners.
#32 Redan at #1 Morgan County
#17 North Murray at #16 Laney
#24 Carver (Atlanta) at #9 Sumter County
#25 Union County at #8 Appling County
#28 Crisp County at #5 Burke County
#21 Shaw at #12 South Atlanta
#20 Cook at #13 Thomson
#29 Butler at #4 Rockmart
#30 Hardaway at #3 Carver (Columbus)
#19 Hart County at #14 Ringgold
#22 Jackson at #11 Hapeville Charter
#27 Miller Grove at #6 Columbia
#26 East Jackson at #7 Stephens County
#23 Pike County at #10 Callaway
#18 Westside-Macon at #15 Spencer
#31 Sonoraville at #2 Pierce County
Class A Division I
No. 1-ranked Toombs County is in a region with Savannah Christian, the No. 1 team in Class 3A-A private. The region runner-up must be seeded below all region champions, so that’s why Toombs – projected to finish second to Savannah Christian – is seeded no higher than No. 6 overall here. Winning would solve that but still seems harsh.
#32 B.E.S.T. Academy at #1 Fannin County
#17 Worth County at #16 Chattooga
#24 ACE Charter at #9 Rabun County
#25 Temple at #8 Dade County
#28 Bacon County at #5 Bremen
#21 Social Circle at #12 Dodge County
#20 Model at #13 Gordon Lee
#29 Washington County at #4 Lamar County
#30 Jasper County at #3 Thomasville
#19 Bleckley County at #14 Swainsboro
#22 Southwest at #11 Putnam County
#27 Vidalia at #6 Toombs County
#26 Commerce at #7 Northeast
#23 Armuchee at #10 Fitzgerald
#18 Jeff Davis at #15 Elbert County
#31 Heard County at #2 Dublin
Class A Division II
There’s the Bowdon/Manchester/Trion region, and there’s the Irwin County/Brooks County/Clinch County region. The top quarter of this draw is ripe for some road warrior from one of those regions to make the semifinals.
(R2 #3) Clinch County at (R8 #2) Greene County
(R5 #4) Glascock County at (R1 #1) Early County
(R7 #3) Trion at (R6 #2) Macon County
(R3 #4) Jenkins County at (R4 #1) Wilcox County
(R8 #3) Warren County at (R2 #2) Irwin County
(R1 #4) Seminole County at (R5 #1) Johnson County
(R6 #3) Taylor County at (R7 #2) Manchester
(R4 #4) Hawkinsville at (R3 #1) Metter
(R4 #3) Dooly County at (R3 #2) McIntosh County Academy
(R7 #4) Mount Zion-Carroll at (R6 #1) Schley County
(R1 #3) Mitchell County at (R5 #2) Wilkinson County
(R8 #4) Lake Oconee Academy at (R2 #1) Brooks County
(R3 #3) Emanuel County Institute at (R4 #2) Telfair County
(R6 #4) Chattahoochee County at (R7 #1) Bowdon
(R5 #3) Hancock Central at (R1 #2) Pelham
(R2 #4) Charlton County at (R8 #1) Lincoln County
Class 3A-A private
Savannah Christian is projected to get the No. 1 seed but would fall to around No. 7 if the Raiders finish second in the region to No. 1-ranked Toombs County of Class A Division I. Second-ranked Hebron Christian and third-ranked Prince Avenue Christian are in the same region, along with spoiler Stephens County, so they're positioned for under-seeding. North Cobb Christian can move up substantially but would need to end Rockmart’s 52-game winning streak in region play.
#1 Savannah Christian - bye
#17 Christian Heritage at #16 Holy Innocents’
#24 St. Francis at #9 Greater Atlanta Christian
#25 Walker at #8 North Cobb Christian
#5 Prince Avenue Christian - bye
#21 Trinity Christian at #12 Wesleyan
#20 Providence Christian at #13 Mount Vernon
#4 Fellowship Christian - bye
#3 Athens Academy - bye
#19 Savannah Country Day at #14 Aquinas
#22 Landmark Christian at #11 Hebron Christian
#6 Calvary Day - bye
#7 Whitefield Academy - bye
#23 Mount Pisgah Christian at #10 Darlington
#18 Mount Paran Christian at #15 King's Ridge Christian
#2 Lovett - bye