Maxwell Ratings provide insights into evaluating reclassification

The Maxwell Ratings have been a cornerstone of GHSF Daily since the newsletter’s inception in 2009. Mathematician Loren Maxwell’s computer algorithm ranks teams, regions and classifications. It also predicts games, scores, region finishes and state playoffs.

For those looking even deeper, the Maxwell Ratings can evaluate reclassification. The Georgia High School Association finished the biennial process in January, putting 129 of Georgia’s 412 football-playing schools in different classes and several more into different regions for the 2022-23 and 2023-24 school years.

Here are five observations based on Maxwell’s ranking of classes and teams published this week on ajc.com (subscription).

1. If you can’t run with the big dogs …

The largest gap between classifications exists at the top. The average Class 7A team is 11 points better than the average Class 6A team, according to Maxwell. Nearly two decades ago, the GHSA considered a highest class of only 32 teams, called the Big 32, to address the belief that there’s a profound competitive imbalance between schools with 3,500 students and those with 2,000. That plan was rejected, but the presumption was astute. To that end, the highest class has been limited to about 48 schools in recent years, and the Maxwell Ratings show why. That doesn’t mean smaller schools can’t be good. Maxwell has Carrollton, Westlake and Valdosta – teams up from 6A – in his top 16 of Class 7A. But with playoff opponents about 10 points stronger every round, it could be 10 to 50 times more difficult to win a state title, or even reach the quarterfinals, in 7A than in 6A.

2. A bone for the little dogs

The next-largest gap between classes exists at Class A’s new divisions I and II. The average Division I team is nine points stronger than the average Division II team, per Maxwell. The reasons are the same as for 7A-6A. In the old Class A, schools with 500 students often were playing against those with 250. That’s twice the enrollment and twice the odds of finding the next Garrison Hearst walking the halls. If the current divisions I and II were merged, Maxwell would have only one Division II team, Clinch County, in the top 10, and that’s based largely on Clinch’s tradition. In short, the new Division II is a godsend to schools with fewer than 400 students such as Washington-Wilkes, Lincoln County, ECI and McIntosh County Academy.

3. Where class boundaries get fuzzy

In the playoffs, the differences between classes 6A and 5A and between classes 4A and 3A are virtually non-existent. The average 6A team is 4-5 points better than the average 5A team, according to Maxwell, but when comparing the top 16 teams in each class, the difference is only 2.3 points. When comparing 4A and 3A, the differences are even smaller. Class 4A’s top 16 teams are only 0.6 points better than 3A’s top 16 teams. So, getting bumped up just one class – so long as it’s not into 7A or 5A – is really nothing to fret. The chances of winning a state title are essentially the same in 6A as 5A, the same in 4A as 3A, and almost the same in 2A as A Division I. So, if you’re Blessed Trinity, Burke County, Bremen or Thomasville, just relax. Now, two-class bumps – yikes, Gordon Lee and Greater Atlanta Christian! – those do matter, according to Maxwell's numbers.

Here's Maxwell’s breakdown on the average team in each class and top-16 teams in each class.

7A - Overall: 71.84 ... Best 16: 89.75

6A - Overall: 60.89 ... Best 16: 77.62

5A - Overall: 55.49 ... Best 16: 75.30

4A - Overall: 52.88 ... Best 16: 67.99

3A - Overall: 48.28 ... Best 16: 67.36

2A - Overall: 41.36 ... Best 16: 64.02

A D-I - Overall: 43.40 ... Best 16: 60.29

A D-II - Overall: 34.54 ... Best 16: 50.00

4. Hardly a speed bump for private schools

Private-school football teams are better than most people realize. That’s surprising since almost everybody realizes they’re really good in Georgia. But how good? According to the Maxwell Ratings, the average 6A private school is 19 points better than the average 6A public school. In 4A, they’re about 12 points better than average. In Class A Division I, where there are six private schools, the difference is only about seven points, and it would be less except that private schools are simply less likely to be terrible (none ranked outside the top 25). It’s hard not to conclude that the 3.0 multiplier didn’t do much to sand-bag the larger private schools, but from Class 3A down, there is relatively good parity between public and private schools. Of the 19 private schools in 3A below, only two have top-five rankings.

Private schools ranked by class:

7A - None

6A - No. 2 Blessed Trinity, No. 5 Woodward, No. 8 Marist, No. 13 St. Pius

5A - No. 23 Greater Atlanta Christian

4A - No. 1 Benedictine, No. 7 Trinity Christian, No. 11 Westminster, No. 20 Holy Innocents’, No. 22 Pace Academy, No. 25 Lovett

3A - No. 9 Calvary Day, No. 12 Wesleyan, No. 21 Savannah Christian, No. 24 Savannah Country Day, No. 27 Hebron Christian

2A - No. 2 ELCA, No. 8 Fellowship Christian, No. 12 Athens Academy, No. 23 North Cobb Christian, No. 28 Mount Paran Christian, No. 38 Landmark Christian, No. 52 Providence Christian

A D-I - No. 3 Prince Avenue Christian, No. 9 Darlington, No. 10 Whitefield Academy, No. 16 Mount Vernon, No. 17 Mount Pisgah Christian, No. 22 Athens Christian, No. 23 St. Francis

A D-II - No. 9 Aquinas, No. 19 Christian Heritage

5. Closer look at city schools

City schools are good, too. As it did with private schools, the GHSA targeted city schools with its 3.0 out-of-zone multiplier to mete out competitive justice. After reclassification, the average city school football team is ranked 14th in its classification. The average county team is 27th. City schools are about 15 points better than non-city schools in 7A and about 17 points better in 5A. The difference in Class A Division I is negligible, however. Smaller city schools don't perform above expectation as much as the bigger ones, according to Maxwell's math.

City schools ranked by class:

7A - No. 1 Buford, No. 18 Carrollton, No. 14 Valdosta, No. 18 Marietta

6A - No. 4 Rome, No. 7 Gainesville

5A - No. 1 Cartersville, No. 6 Calhoun, No. 9 Jefferson, No. 17 Dalton, No. 22 Decatur

4A - None

3A - No. 7 Thomasville, No. 19 Bremen, No. 41 Gordon Lee

2A - No. 20 Vidalia

A D-I - No. 8 Dublin, No. 15 Commerce, No. 18 Trion, No. 19 Pelham, No. 28 Social Circle

A D-II - None

Note: The average ranking of all GHSA teams is 25.8.