Maxwell’s playoff projections heading into Week 3
Playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?
Yeah, Jim Mora, it’s Sept. 1, and we’re talking playoffs. Loren Maxwell, creator of the Maxwell Ratings, publishes his playoff predictions weekly on ajc.com, where he talks playoffs.
If nothing else, they’re newsworthy for the bracket alignment and region matchups, which change each year. And they’re great topics of motivation for the disrespected.
Below are the most likely first-round matchups 10 weeks out, according to Maxwell’s computer model.
Class 7A
Those Buford-Mill Creek (Oct. 13) and Carrollton-Westlake (Oct. 20) region games sure look good. And there’s about to be a run on thumb tacks in Kingsland. Camden County is projected to miss the playoffs.
R4 #3 Newton at R1 #2 Lowndes
R3 #4 McEachern at R2 #1 Westlake
R7 #3 Peachtree Ridge at R6 #2 Lambert
R8 #4 Mountain View at R5 #1 Walton .
R1 #3 Valdosta at R4 #2 Grayson
R2 #4 Pebblebrook at R3 #1 Harrison
R6 #3 West Forsyth at R7 #2 North Gwinnett
R5 #4 Cherokee at R8 #1 Mill Creek
R5 #3 Wheeler at R8 #2 Buford
R6 #4 Denmark at R7 #1 Norcross
R2 #3 East Coweta at R3 #2 Marietta
R1 #4 Richmond Hill at R4 #1 Parkview
R8 #3 Collins Hill at R5 #2 North Cobb
R7 #4 Meadowcreek at R6 #1 Milton
R3 #3 North Paulding at R2 #2 Carrollton
R4 #4 Brookwood at R1 #1 Colquitt County
Class 6A
Not sure Houston County is really going to finish in fourth place again, but if the Bears do, that could produce a Houston County-Marist first-round game. In fact, Marist and all of Region 4 will be under a sweep warning come November, according to Maxwell.
R4 #3 St. Pius at R1 #2 Thomas County Central
R3 #4 Jonesboro at R2 #1 Brunswick
R7 #3 Alpharetta at R6 #2 Creekview
R8 #4 Shiloh at R5 #1 Hughes
R1 #3 Northside (Warner Robins) at R4 #2 North Atlanta
R2 #4 Evans at R3 #1 Woodward Academy
R6 #3 River Ridge at R7 #2 Blessed Trinity
R5 #4 South Paulding at R8 #1 Gainesville
R5 #3 Alexander at R8 #2 North Forsyth
R6 #4 Etowah at R7 #1 Roswell
R2 #3 Effingham County at R3 #2 Mundy's Mill
R1 #4 Houston County at R4 #1 Marist
R8 #3 Lanier at R5 #2 Douglas County
R7 #4 Sprayberry at R6 #1 Rome
R3 #3 Lovejoy at R2 #2 Glynn Academy
R4 #4 Riverwood at R1 #1 Lee County
Class 5A
No. 2 Creekside, No. 3 Warner Robins and No. 4 Coffee are in the same quarter of this projected draw. The winners of regions 1 (projected to be Ware County) and 7 (Calhoun) might like what they see.
R4 #3 Chamblee at R1 #2 Coffee
R3 #4 Harris at R2 #1 Warner Robins
R7 #3 Dalton at R6 #2 Cambridge
R8 #4 Eastside at R5 #1 Creekside
R1 #3 Statesboro at R4 #2 Decatur
R2 #4 Ola at R3 #1 Northgate
R6 #3 Greater Atlanta Christian at R7 #2 Cartersville
R5 #4 Banneker at R8 #1 Jefferson
R5 #3 Chapel Hill at R8 #2 Flowery Branch
R6 #4 Centennial at R7 #1 Calhoun
R2 #3 Jones County at R3 #2 Northside (Columbus)
R1 #4 Jenkins at R4 #1 Tucker
R8 #3 Clarke Central at R5 #2 Mays
R7 #4 Hiram at R6 #1 Kell
R3 #3 McIntosh at R2 #2 Dutchtown
R4 #4 Arabia Mountain at R1 #1 Ware County
Class 4A
No. 1 Benedictine and No. 2 North Oconee will be in the same quarter of the draw if they win their regions. No. 6 Wayne County at No. 5 Perry would be a strong first-rounder, though both are bent on finishing higher than projected. Maxwell predicts Baldwin to the semifinals for the first time since 2005.
R4 #3 Whitewater at R1 #2 Cairo
R3 #4 New Hampstead at R2 #1 Baldwin
R7 #3 Northwest Whitfield at R6 #2 Stephenson
R8 #4 Cedar Shoals at R5 #1 Stockbridge
R1 #3 Westover at R4 #2 Trinity Christian
R2 #4 Howard at R3 #1 Benedictine
R6 #3 Hapeville Charter at R7 #2 Central (Carrollton)
R5 #4 McDonough at R8 #1 North Oconee
R5 #3 Lovett at R8 #2 Madison County
R6 #4 Westminster at R7 #1 Cedartown
R2 #3 Spalding at R3 #2 Burke County
R1 #4 Hardaway at R4 #1 Troup
R8 #3 North Hall at R5 #2 Pace Academy
R7 #4 Sonoraville at R6 #1 Holy Innocents'
R3 #3 Wayne County at R2 #2 Perry
R4 #4 LaGrange at R1 #1 Bainbridge
Class 3A
No. 7 Monroe Area at No. 6 Carver of Atlanta would be a first-round treat. Maxwell is projecting Stephens County to the semifinals for the first time since 1992.
R4 #3 Hephzibah at R1 #2 Carver (Columbus)
R3 #4 Long County at R2 #1 Peach County
R7 #3 Pickens at R6 #2 Ringgold
R8 #4 Hebron Christian at R5 #1 Cedar Grove
R1 #3 Crisp County at R4 #2 Morgan County
R2 #4 Jackson at R3 #1 Calvary Day
R6 #3 Bremen at R7 #2 White County
R5 #4 Douglass at R8 #1 Stephens County
R5 #3 Carver (Atlanta) at R8 #2 Monroe Area
R6 #4 Coahulla Creek at R7 #1 Dawson County
R2 #3 Mary Persons at R3 #2 Savannah Christian
R1 #4 Dougherty at R4 #1 Harlem
R8 #3 Oconee County at R5 #2 Sandy Creek
R7 #4 Wesleyan at R6 #1 Adairsville
R3 #3 Savannah Country Day at R2 #2 Upson-Lee
R4 #4 Richmond Academy at R1 #1 Thomasville
Class 2A
Maxwell projects North Cobb Christian to win its first region title and Redan to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007.
R4 #3 Washington County at R1 #2 Cook
R3 #4 Vidalia at R2 #1 Northeast
R7 #3 Fannin County at R6 #2 South Atlanta
R8 #4 East Jackson at R5 #1 Callaway
R1 #3 Dodge County at R4 #2 Putnam County
R2 #4 Southwest at R3 #1 Pierce County
R6 #3 Mount Paran Christian at R7 #2 North Murray
R5 #4 Redan at R8 #1 Fellowship Christian
R5 #3 Columbia at R8 #2 Athens Academy
R6 #4 Washington at R7 #1 Rockmart
R2 #3 ACE Charter at R3 #2 Appling County
R1 #4 Jeff Davis at R4 #1 Thomson
R8 #3 Union County at R5 #2 Eagle's Landing Christian
R7 #4 Model at R6 #1 North Cobb Christian
R3 #3 Toombs County at R2 #2 Spencer
R4 #4 Laney at R1 #1 Fitzgerald
Class A Division I
The 2022 finalists – No. 1 Prince Avenue Christian and No. 2 Swainsboro – are projected to meet in the quarterfinals. Also under this theory, Mount Vernon will win its first region title, Bryan County will host its first state playoff game, and Jasper County will host its first since 1992.
R4 #3 Heard County at R1 #2 Brooks County
R3 #4 Claxton at R2 #1 Swainsboro
R7 #3 Pepperell at R6 #2 Whitefield Academy
R8 #4 Athens Christian at R5 #1 Prince Avenue Christian
R1 #3 Pelham at R4 #2 Temple
R2 #4 Jefferson County at R3 #1 Metter
R6 #3 Mount Pisgah Christian at R7 #2 Darlington
R5 #4 Oglethorpe County at R8 #1 Rabun County
R5 #3 Social Circle at R8 #2 Elbert County
R6 #4 St. Francis at R7 #1 Trion
R2 #3 Dublin at R3 #2 Bryan County
R1 #4 Bacon County at R4 #1 Lamar County
R8 #3 Commerce at R5 #2 Jasper County
R7 #4 Dade County at R6 #1 Mount Vernon
R3 #3 Screven County at R2 #2 Bleckley County
R4 #4 Crawford County at R1 #1 Irwin County
Class A Division II
Macon County beat Clinch County last week, and Early County plays Schley County this week. If these projections hold, those games will be replayed in the second round. Maxwell also thinks that GHSF Daily’s second-ranked team in the class, Manchester, is the third-best team in Region 6.
R4 #3 Telfair County at R1 #2 Mitchell County
R3 #4 Portal at R2 #1 Clinch County
R7 #3 Christian Heritage at R6 #2 Macon County
R8 #4 Lincoln County at R5 #1 Johnson County
R1 #3 Terrell County at R4 #2 Dooly County
R2 #4 Lanier County at R3 #1 McIntosh County Academy
R6 #3 Manchester at R7 #2 Mount Zion
R5 #4 GMC Prep at R8 #1 Aquinas
R5 #3 Hancock Central at R8 #2 Greene County
R6 #4 Chattahoochee County at R7 #1 Bowdon
R2 #3 Charlton County at R3 #2 ECI
R1 #4 Miller County at R4 #1 Wilcox County
R8 #3 Washington-Wilkes at R5 #2 Wilkinson County
R7 #4 Bye vs. R6 #1 Schley County
R3 #3 Jenkins County at R2 #2 Turner County
R4 #4 Wheeler County at R1 #1 Early County
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