Odds of making the quarters: St. Francis, Dooly County are biggest surprises

From a preseason perspective, the most surprising quarterfinal team is St. Francis, given a 1.5% chance by the computer Maxwell Ratings. That makes sense. St. Francis had never made the quarterfinals until this season.

Based on how things looked entering the playoffs, including each team’s draw, the most surprising is Dooly County (3.2%).

Below are each team’s odds in preseason and entering the playoffs.

Preseason chances of making the quarterfinals:

1.5% - St. Francis

2.8% - Thomas County Central

3.8% - Wayne County

5.5% - Mays

7.4% - Mount Pisgah Christian

10.5% - Troup

11.1% - Savannah Christian

11.8% - Dooly County

13.9% - Hughes

14.1% - Houston County

14.2% - Gainesville

19.1% - South Atlanta

19.7% - Walton

21.0% - Stockbridge

21.9% - Dutchtown

21.9% - Johnson County

23.1% - Holy Innocents

28.3% - Bowdon

29.6% - Westlake

30.7% - Carrollton

30.8% - Calvary Day

35.4% - Swainsboro

37.5% - Lincoln County

39.6% - Fellowship Christian

42.4% - Rome

42.6% - North Gwinnett

46.2% - Early County

46.3% - Schley County

47.9% - Thomson

48.1% - Bleckley County

48.2% - Carver (Atlanta)

49.1% - Mill Creek

50.7% - Sandy Creek

51.4% - Wilcox County

56.6% - Milton

57.5% - Colquitt County

57.9% - Creekside

58.3% - Oconee County

59.7% - Grayson

61.0% - Callaway

62.5% - Roswell

63.4% - Metter

63.7% - Bainbridge

66.0% - North Oconee

66.8% - Calhoun

68.4% - Marist

69.5% - Appling County

73.9% - Clinch County

76.3% - Cedartown

76.3% - Carver (Columbus)

76.6% - Benedictine

77.4% - Irwin County

78.9% - Coffee

80.1% - Thomasville

81.2% - Fitzgerald

81.9% - Pierce County

82.1% - Rockmart

84.2% - Cedar Grove

86.3% - Ware County

86.5% - Woodward Academy

89.4% - Cartersville

90.8% - Rabun County

91.3% - Prince Avenue Christian

98.0% - Warner Robins

Post-regular season chances of making the quarterfinals:

3.2% - Dooly County

5.7% - Bleckley County

10.3% - Walton

10.4% - Wayne County

10.8% - Mount Pisgah Christian

13.2% - Mays

27.7% - North Gwinnett

31.9% - Marist

34.8% - Westlake

35.1% - Savannah Christian

35.5% - Cartersville

38.9% - Woodward Academy

47.6% - Holy Innocents

50.5% - Clinch County

51.2% - Thomson

54.6% - Calhoun

58.5% - Carver (Atlanta)

58.8% - Sandy Creek

61.1% - Grayson

62.2% - Mill Creek

62.3% - Houston County

64.1% - Metter

66.5% - Carver (Columbus)

67.3% - Wilcox County

71.0% - Callaway

71.9% - Bainbridge

72.4% - Oconee County

73.8% - Stockbridge

73.9% - Fellowship Christian

74.8% - Early County

77.5% - Creekside

78.1% - Rome

80.0% - Warner Robins

80.1% - St. Francis

81.7% - Gainesville

82.3% - Troup

83.1% - Carrollton

84.1% - Thomasville

84.5% - Calvary Day

84.5% - Bowdon

87.1% - Appling County

87.3% - Lincoln County

87.4% - Pierce County

87.5% - Dutchtown

88.0% - Johnson County

88.9% - Rockmart

89.6% - Schley County

90.0% - Benedictine

90.2% - Coffee

90.7% - Milton

91.5% - South Atlanta

92.2% - North Oconee

93.3% - Roswell

93.5% - Rabun County

94.9% - Colquitt County

95.1% - Ware County

96.0% - Fitzgerald

96.6% - Hughes

96.6% - Cedar Grove

96.9% - Prince Avenue Christian

97.5% - Cedartown

98.2% - Swainsboro

98.8% - Thomas County Central

99.1% - Irwin County

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