Odds of making the quarters: St. Francis, Dooly County are biggest surprises
From a preseason perspective, the most surprising quarterfinal team is St. Francis, given a 1.5% chance by the computer Maxwell Ratings. That makes sense. St. Francis had never made the quarterfinals until this season.
Based on how things looked entering the playoffs, including each team’s draw, the most surprising is Dooly County (3.2%).
Below are each team’s odds in preseason and entering the playoffs.
Preseason chances of making the quarterfinals:
1.5% - St. Francis
2.8% - Thomas County Central
3.8% - Wayne County
5.5% - Mays
7.4% - Mount Pisgah Christian
10.5% - Troup
11.1% - Savannah Christian
11.8% - Dooly County
13.9% - Hughes
14.1% - Houston County
14.2% - Gainesville
19.1% - South Atlanta
19.7% - Walton
21.0% - Stockbridge
21.9% - Dutchtown
21.9% - Johnson County
23.1% - Holy Innocents
28.3% - Bowdon
29.6% - Westlake
30.7% - Carrollton
30.8% - Calvary Day
35.4% - Swainsboro
37.5% - Lincoln County
39.6% - Fellowship Christian
42.4% - Rome
42.6% - North Gwinnett
46.2% - Early County
46.3% - Schley County
47.9% - Thomson
48.1% - Bleckley County
48.2% - Carver (Atlanta)
49.1% - Mill Creek
50.7% - Sandy Creek
51.4% - Wilcox County
56.6% - Milton
57.5% - Colquitt County
57.9% - Creekside
58.3% - Oconee County
59.7% - Grayson
61.0% - Callaway
62.5% - Roswell
63.4% - Metter
63.7% - Bainbridge
66.0% - North Oconee
66.8% - Calhoun
68.4% - Marist
69.5% - Appling County
73.9% - Clinch County
76.3% - Cedartown
76.3% - Carver (Columbus)
76.6% - Benedictine
77.4% - Irwin County
78.9% - Coffee
80.1% - Thomasville
81.2% - Fitzgerald
81.9% - Pierce County
82.1% - Rockmart
84.2% - Cedar Grove
86.3% - Ware County
86.5% - Woodward Academy
89.4% - Cartersville
90.8% - Rabun County
91.3% - Prince Avenue Christian
98.0% - Warner Robins
Post-regular season chances of making the quarterfinals:
3.2% - Dooly County
5.7% - Bleckley County
10.3% - Walton
10.4% - Wayne County
10.8% - Mount Pisgah Christian
13.2% - Mays
27.7% - North Gwinnett
31.9% - Marist
34.8% - Westlake
35.1% - Savannah Christian
35.5% - Cartersville
38.9% - Woodward Academy
47.6% - Holy Innocents
50.5% - Clinch County
51.2% - Thomson
54.6% - Calhoun
58.5% - Carver (Atlanta)
58.8% - Sandy Creek
61.1% - Grayson
62.2% - Mill Creek
62.3% - Houston County
64.1% - Metter
66.5% - Carver (Columbus)
67.3% - Wilcox County
71.0% - Callaway
71.9% - Bainbridge
72.4% - Oconee County
73.8% - Stockbridge
73.9% - Fellowship Christian
74.8% - Early County
77.5% - Creekside
78.1% - Rome
80.0% - Warner Robins
80.1% - St. Francis
81.7% - Gainesville
82.3% - Troup
83.1% - Carrollton
84.1% - Thomasville
84.5% - Calvary Day
84.5% - Bowdon
87.1% - Appling County
87.3% - Lincoln County
87.4% - Pierce County
87.5% - Dutchtown
88.0% - Johnson County
88.9% - Rockmart
89.6% - Schley County
90.0% - Benedictine
90.2% - Coffee
90.7% - Milton
91.5% - South Atlanta
92.2% - North Oconee
93.3% - Roswell
93.5% - Rabun County
94.9% - Colquitt County
95.1% - Ware County
96.0% - Fitzgerald
96.6% - Hughes
96.6% - Cedar Grove
96.9% - Prince Avenue Christian
97.5% - Cedartown
98.2% - Swainsboro
98.8% - Thomas County Central
99.1% - Irwin County